Come January 1, 2013, VectorVest will be embarking upon its twenty fifth year in business, and we look forward to all the challenges and opportunities it will bring.
We ran our first ad in Barron’s Magazine in January 1988 and the very first customer who called to order a subscription is still with us. He was a Financial Adviser and liked what he saw. He called frequently because he wanted to learn all he could about VectorVest. We had many pleasant discussions and he often said VectorVest made him look smart. As of today, he has been awarded a lifetime, complimentary subscription.
VectorVest has been through a lot over the last 25 years and all this talk about the “Fiscal Cliff” doesn’t scare us. We have all the information, tools, training and techniques needed to make money in any kind of market. Moreover, we are very excited by the recent development of our Sure-Fire Trading Systems and the improvements we plan to release during the coming year. The first improvement will be demonstrated next week at our Two-Day seminar in Tampa.
As for the stock market itself, it has been bending, but it’s not broken. Anything vaguely resembling a solution to the fiscal cliff will send stock prices flying higher. But that’s a knee-jerk reaction. What’s the market going to do in the longer term?
As usual, I surveyed a number of financial sources to get their predictions and, as usual, their bias was bullish. For example, Business Insider provided the 2012 predictions of 16 top-notch, Wall Street strategists and the 2013 predictions of nine strategists, several of whom were in the 2012 group. The 2012 predictions for the S&P500’s year-end closing price ranged from 1,167 to 1,500 with an average of 1,363. Given that the S&P500 closed at 1,258 on 12/30/2011, the Pros were predicting a gain of 8.5%. The S&P500 closed at 1,402 today, so they were pretty close to the mark. As for their 2013 predictions, they ranged from 1,425 to 1,665 with an average of 1,540. This represents a gain of 9.8% from today’s close. So they’re not afraid of the fiscal cliff either.
The December 17, 2012 cover of Barron’s Magazine was headlined: “OUTLOOK 2013, Despite fears about the fiscal cliff, Wall Street’s top strategists see stocks climbing 10% in the coming year.” On page 34, Barron’s identified the 10 strategists, many of whom were in the groups cited above, and gave their S&P500 year-end targets. Their predictions ranged from 1434 to 1660, with an average of 1562. Apparently surprised by the bullish predictions, Barron’s said, “Yet, if there’s one thing that makes market seers-and investors-comfortable about 2013, it is stocks’ big rally in 2012. Success breeds confidence.”
OK, what does VectorVest predict? Well, we don’t make predictions…we’re trend followers. I wrote about the three most important trends to follow two weeks ago in my essay entitled, “The Investment Climate Indicators.” In that essay I said the stock market will ultimately be driven by earnings, inflation and interest rates. As long as earnings are rising, we will have a Bull Market Scenario.
Yes, earnings are forecasted to continue to rise, but the rate of earnings growth has slowed dramatically. In addition, a 10-Yr. view of our Market Timing Graph shows that the Price of the VectorVest Composite has had a hard time getting and staying above $29.00 per share over the last five years, and the Buy/Sell Ratio has been hitting lower highs since May 2009. This means that the breadth of each successive rally has been getting smaller, just as it did from June 2003 to February 2009.
So we’re closer to the end of this bull market than we are to the beginning. But don’t worry about it, our Sure-Fire Success Wizard will tell us when to buy, what to buy and when to sell. Moreover, we are confident that the Sure-Fire Success Trading Systems, shown in tonight’s “Strategy of the Week” presentation, will outperform the S&P500 in the coming year, 2013: Our Silver Anniversary.