The current bull market celebrated its fifth birthday earlier this week and brings up the question as to how long it will last. In order to answer this question, we would need to know when the next bear market begins. VectorVest did it in 2007. Can we do it again? A bear market is defined as a 20% drop in a major index, e.g., DJIA or SPX, which lasts at least two months. The last bear market began on October 10, 2007 when the DJIA and SPX closed at bull market highs. The Price of VectorVest’s Market Index Composite closed at an all-time high of $31.44 on July 13, 2007; then it hit an intraday high of $31.84 on October 11, 2007. VectorVest issued a Confirmed Down (C/Dn) signal on November 1, 2007 and I wrote an essay on Contra ETFs on November 2, 2007.